Probability of Profit Filter: Bias the Math in Your Favor
Probability of Profit shows the model-implied chance a contract expires worthless (a win for sellers). Use it to enforce a minimum win-rate floor.
What POP measures
Probability of Profit (POP) is the model-implied chance the option expires worthless to the buyer — a complete win for the seller.
It's mathematically tied to delta:
POP ≈ 1 − |delta|
A −0.20 delta put has roughly an 80% POP. The screener calculates the exact value using the contract's implied volatility and time to expiration.
Where to find it
The Probability of Profit filter is in the sidebar of both screeners with a 0–100% slider.
Recommended POP floors
| Style | POP floor | Behavior |
|---|---|---|
| Income-only | 80% | Many small wins |
| Balanced wheel | 70% | Standard delta |
| Aggressive | 60% | Bigger premiums, more losses |
Setting POP to ≥ 70% is a clean way to enforce conservative trades without manually tuning delta.
A worked example
You want to maintain at least an 80% theoretical win rate:
- Open the Put screener.
- Set Probability of Profit ≥ 80%.
- Set DTE to 25–45 and Volume ≥ 100.
- Sort by Premium descending.
You'll surface only contracts where the model puts the odds on your side.
POP vs Delta — when to use which
- Delta is intuitive and constant across IV levels.
- POP is adjusted for IV and DTE — a more honest probability number.
Power users set Delta first to filter the chain, then check POP on each row before clicking.
Common mistakes
1. Treating POP as guaranteed. Even an 80% POP loses one in five times. Position-size accordingly.
2. Ignoring the loss when POP fails. A high POP often comes with a small premium and a large potential loss. Always check the worst case.
Where to go next
- Read Delta filter for the same idea via the seller's lens.
- Try Earnings Safe preset for high-POP setups.
- Use the Delta-to-POP Converter for quick math.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's a good probability of profit for selling puts?
70–80% POP is the sweet spot for most wheel traders. It keeps you winning four out of five trades on average while still collecting meaningful premium.
How is POP calculated on the screener?
POP uses the contract's implied volatility, time to expiration, current stock price, and strike to model the probability the option finishes out of the money at expiration.