What is probability of profit in options?

Probability of profit (PoP) is the chance your trade ends with a gain. For short puts, PoP ≈ 1 - delta. 30 delta ≈ 70% PoP—you expect to keep the premium 70% of the time.

How does delta relate to probability of profit?

Delta approximates probability of finishing in-the-money. For short puts, PoP ≈ 100% - (delta × 100). So 30 delta = ~30% assignment risk = ~70% PoP.

Delta to PoP Converter

For short puts, probability of profit ≈ 1 - delta. Quick reference for trade evaluation.

Delta (0 to 1)

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